Presentations
Fault Lines, Fractures and Flashpoints: Mapping the Geopolitical Landscape
-
Black Swans, Gray Ducks, and Pink Flamingoes: Forecasting and Understanding Geopolitical Risk
-
Mother, Daughter, Soldier, Spy: Secrets of a White House Intelligence Whisperer
-
Unraveling the Ties of Titans: Great Power Competition in the Wake of Globalization
-
Shifting Sands: The Global Impact of Conflict in the Middle East
-
Geopolitical Dominoes: The Global Stakes of the 2024 US Election Outcome
-
Hotter Days, Power Plays, and the Conflict Maze: How Climate Drives Conflict
Fault Lines, Fractures and Flashpoints: Mapping the Geopolitical Landscape
2023 marked a significant shift in the global landscape, signaling a period of deep-rooted change, uncertainty, and instability poised to reconfigure international politics and transform the landscape for global commerce, international security, and global growth. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, reignited tensions in the Middle East, the Balkans, the Caucuses, and the South China Sea, coupled with frequent coups across Africa and escalating aggression everywhere suggest we’re transitioning to a new, more dangerous and volatile era of great power politics.
Key Takeaways:
-
Learn the Impact of Geopolitical Tensions: Recognize how current conflicts and reignited tensions in places like Ukraine, the Middle East, and the South China Sea are indicative of a larger transition in the geopolitical arena, with implications for global commerce and security.
-
Understand how transformative International Dynamics are changing our Future: Discover the current events and tensions that are altering the global balance of power.
-
Use Predictive Analysis: Identify and understand “hidden triggers” that could lead to significant geopolitical shifts, ensuring that today’s overlooked tensions don’t become tomorrow’s crises.
Mother, Daughter, Soldier, Spy: Secrets of a White House Intelligence Whisperer
Have you ever wondered how intelligence officers operate in the world of shadows and secrets? How do they find the right data or sift through the terabytes of available information to find the most valuable and impactful intelligence? After they’ve found the right information, how do they package and present it for executive decision-making? Join Michelle, a former White House intelligence advisor as she peels back the curtain to reveal the art and science of intelligence foresight and analysis. With a deft blend of open-source intelligence, razor-sharp analytical tradecraft, and an armful of personal anecdotes, Michelle guides you through the labyrinth of global information, distinguishing the faint but critical signals from the cacophony of noise. In this interactive presentation, the audience will learn the methodology of intelligence alchemy—turning the raw data of the present into the golden insights of tomorrow. Prepare to navigate the complexities of intelligence with the precision of a strategist and the insight of a seer, gaining the ultimate competitive edge as she offers the audience a glimpse into the whispering arts of intelligence and shows you how to turn foresight into competitive advantage.
Key Takeaways:
-
Tenets of Intelligence Tradecraft: Learn the secrets of harnessing open-source materials to forecast future events.
-
Anticipatory Insight: Discover how to interpret subtle cues that signal emerging trends and unseen opportunities.
-
Decision-Making Superiority: Gain actionable intelligence methods that confer strategic advantages and informed decision-making.
-
Impact Analysis: Understanding how insightful intelligence safeguards and amplifies value in a competitive world.
-
Executive Packaging and Delivery: Learn how the packaging and presentation of information can dramatically affect the decision-making process.
Black Swans, Gray Ducks, and Pink Flamingoes: Forecasting and Understanding Geopolitical Risk
In a world awash with uncertainty, the extraordinary and the unforeseen can truly captivate our imaginations and jolt our realities. Picture a ‘Black Swan’—a rare, unforeseen event with the power to upend economies and governments overnight. Now, imagine a ‘Gray Duck’—an event lurking just beneath the surface of our expectations, its impact looming but not yet clear. And what of the ‘Pink Flamingo’? An outlier so striking, so unexpected, that it seems to belong to the realm of fiction—until it lands with a splash, altering the course of history.
Key Takeaways:
-
Understand Black Swans: An awareness that unpredictable and high-impact events, such as the sudden political collapse of a major economy or an unexpected severe climate event, can and do occur. The audience will understand the nature of these events, their potential signs, and the importance of resilience and adaptability in the face of such challenges.
-
Insight into Gray Ducks: How to identify high-impact events that are probable, but whose timing and extent are unclear. Methods to monitor the known unknowns and understanding how to evaluate their potential impact, design flexible response strategies, and prepare for them through strategic forecasting and planning.
-
Recognize Pink Flamingoes: An appreciation for the low-probability, high-impact events that seem almost impossible until they happen. Understanding the importance of contingency planning and the importance of considering even the seemingly implausible scenarios in risk assessments.
-
The importance of Resilience and Adaptability in the Face of Unknown Risks: Building adaptable strategies (I&W frameworks) that can withstand the shocks of Black Swans, adjust to the uncertainty of Gray Ducks, and maintain vigilance for Pink Flamingoes.
Unraveling the Ties of Titans: Great Power Competition in the Wake of Globalization
In the high-stakes chess game of global power, every move is a delicate dance of rivalry and reliance. As globalization transforms itself on the threshold of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, it continues to intertwine the fates of superpowers. Prepare to dive into a realm where cyberspace is the new battlefield, alliances shift like sand, and economic ties are weapons as much as they are bonds.
Key Takeaways:
-
Interconnectedness of Global Events: Explore the relationships between the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East, the Balkans, the Caucasus, and the South China Sea, to understand how interconnected and fragile the geopolitical landscape is.
-
Globalization’s Double-Edged Sword: Understand globalization’s role in both connecting and complicating the relationships between major powers, with a particular focus on economic and digital interdependence and its correspondence to national and economic security.
-
Strategic Interdependence: Recognize how the economic ties between nations can act as both a buffer against outright conflict and a source of leverage in geopolitical negotiations.
-
Digital Realm as the New Frontier: Accept the growing importance of cyber capabilities and information warfare in the arsenal of great powers and how this redefines traditional military and diplomatic strategies.
Shifting Sands: The Global Impact of Conflict in the Middle East
Did the Hamas attacks on Israel catch you by surprise? Do you want to understand how those attacks are related to the conflict in Ukraine or to the price of your next car? If you do, join Michelle as she dives into the heart of the current Middle East volatility, embarking on an odyssey that clearly connects the events and decisions underway and maps how these conflicts ripple out, touching every corner of the globe. She will guide you through the labyrinth of alliances and enmities, unveiling the economic tremors and strategic shifts that redraw the map far beyond the dunes of the desert and into the heart of a region where the echoes of conflict reverberate across the globe, where ancient lands have become chessboards for modern power plays, and where every grain of sand could tell its own story of cultural clashes, economic upheavals, and strategic gambits.
Key Takeaways:
-
Ripple Effects of Regional Conflicts: Gain an understanding of how even localized Middle Eastern conflicts can have outsized global consequences here and elsewhere.
-
Interconnected Economies: Learn how intertwined are the fates of global markets with Middle Eastern stability and appreciate the far-reaching impact of regional instability on global energy markets and trade routes.
-
Strategic Global Alliances: See how these conflicts shape and reshape alliances, alter security strategies, and redefine the balance of power.
Geopolitical Dominoes: The Global Stakes of the 2024 US Election Outcome
Imagine a single vote cast in the heartland of America swaying the balance of power in distant capitals. The 2024 US elections are not just a contest of parties, but a pivot point for the world order. With each ballot tallied, the fate of nations hangs in the balance, teetering on the edge of stability or upheaval. Around the globe, bated breaths and watchful eyes are locked on the unfolding drama of the US elections, as the very destiny of international alliances and power structures awaits the final count. Join Michelle for an intriguing and insightful analysis of the spectrum of scenarios and geopolitical outcomes that could cascade from the results of America’s presidential elections. Each of the candidates will have strikingly different foreign and domestic policies that have the potential to recalibrate the fortunes of nations, alliances, and corporations.
Key Takeaways:
-
Global Repercussions of Domestic Choices: Gain insight into how the outcomes of US elections can reshape alliances, economic agreements, and international policies.
-
Forecasting Foreign Policy Shifts: Learn to read the undercurrents of campaign promises and candidate positions to predict or anticipate potential changes in US foreign policy and prepare for their strategic implications across global markets, defense postures, and international law.
-
Strategic Preparedness: Gain the knowledge needed to navigate and adapt to the impending shifts in the geopolitical landscape post-election.
-
Global Influence of Domestic Policy: Understand how the domestic policy platforms of presidential candidates can influence international economics, diplomacy, and security.
-
US Election as a World Event: Recognize the US election’s role as a global event with the power to alter the balance of power, trade agreements, and collective security measures.
Hotter Days, Power Plays, and the Conflict Maze: How Climate Drives Conflict
The mere mention of climate change can raise the temperature of any room—but often that warming results more from political friction than fossil fuels. Over the last decade, climate change and its associated drivers has driven wedges between allies, adversaries, academics, and Americans. So how should we think about climate change in terms of the intricate nexus between its escalating impacts and the increasing incidences of global conflicts? How did climate change contribute to the Russian decision to invade Ukraine? How is climate change disrupting maritime commerce, human migration, and economic flows? Climatic changes are not just environmental issues but catalysts for geopolitical power plays and local skirmishes. Join the discussion for insights into how resource scarcity, forced migrations, and climate-induced economic stresses become flashpoints for regional and international tensions.
Key Takeaways:
-
Climate as a Catalyst: Understand climate change as a potent instigator in the global arena, where environmental shifts lead to power shifts.
-
Conflict Connection: See beyond the weather to witness how climate-driven changes are directly influencing the landscape of conflict.
-
Geopolitical Domino Effect: Discover how ecological stresses are pulling at the seams of international alliances and redefining age-old enmities.
-
Indications & Warnings: Waypoints, Signposts, Warnings, and Indicators to Watch for.